In 2013 the Chinese economy narrowly missed, looking forward to 2014, China's economy can keep growing?Third plenary session of the release of the reform of the signal can be implemented?The world managers website according to public information compiled from foreign financial institutions, such as deutsche bank, Morgan Stanley and Goldman sachs forecast of 2014 China economic trends.
Keep optimistic, GDP growth overall
Deutsche bank in a report published on its strong bullish on China's economic growth in 2014.Deutsche bank forecast in 2014, China's gross domestic product (GDP) growth is expected to be recovered to more than 8%, to 8.6%.This number is significantly higher than many Chinese institutions and international organizations had already released forecast data: the bank of China and bank of communications, respectively in 2014, China's GDP growth is expected to around 7.6%, 7.8%;Singapore's DBS bank forecasts growth is expected to reach 7.8% in 2014, jpmorgan chase's prediction of 7.4%.
China's economy
To this, the bank director for greater China chief economist jun ma think support China's economy continues to recover there are five main factors:
(1) in 2014, the United States and Europe's economic growth will be significantly higher than last year, the recovery of external demand will significantly enhance China's export growth;
(2) the domestic photovoltaic, cement, shipbuilding and other industries of severe overcapacity of supply and demand is improved;
(3) the shortage of domestic supply medical, rail, clean energy, environmental protection and other industries due to the open access will attract more private capital investment;
(4) since the middle of last year the "positive expectations management" of the Chinese government has started to boost the confidence of positive effect, make the third quarter of last year was adjusted by the trend of money velocity, begun to recover from the improvement of money velocity will lead to economic growth accelerated under the condition of monetary growth rate is constant;
(5) although the absolute of the fiscal deficit in 2014 can be little difference between with last year, but in the context of economic recovery, "financial pulse" will show the economic effect of expansionary.
Morgan Stanley said in its report raised before making predictions, the economic growth rate in 2014 from 7.1% to 7.2%, and the growth rate in 2015 from 6.9% to 7.4%.Morgan Stanley said in its report gives the explanation:
Economic growth in the second half of 2013 (1) is suitable for basic stable policy environment;
(2) released by the third plenary session of in-depth reform measures expected to begin in the first half of 2014.However, Morgan Stanley to think from tighter financial conditions can bring downside risk to demand growth in 2014.In 2015, when the effect of the reform measures gradually appeared in the economic growth will be further improved.
Goldman sachs is expected in 2014 China's GDP growth of 7.8%, more than the predicted China's GDP growth in 2013 (7.7%) increased by 0.1%, but in 2014 the growth of higher quality, in the form of more driven by consumption rather than relying on credit growth.Goldman sachs is stable, more healthy economic growth is expected to enhance investor confidence in the reform of potential dividends, which can boost the performance of the stock market.
Two, keep the renminbi appreciation trend while the Chinese government said it would maintain a proactive fiscal policy and prudent monetary policy, to maintain the benchmark interest rates unchanged, but Morgan Stanley in the report predicted that China's fiscal and monetary policies in 2014 is likely to gradually tighten.When the inflation pressure due to the narrowing of the output gap continues to increase, and the CPI more than the official 3.5% target, the people's bank of China in 2015 is expected to policy rates by 25 basis points.The speed of the appreciation of the renminbi will speed up slightly, by the end of 2014, the yuan against the dollar is expected to reach 5.91, 5.74 at the end of 2015, Goldman sachs predicts that in 2014 the Chinese government will adopt a relatively prudent monetary policy and cooperate with sound fiscal policy., monetary policy will be more cautious to curb high leverage and a potential asset bubbles, and the deficit will be consistent with the expected value of 2013, but the structure will be more heavy - reducing investment, expand consumption and exports.Goldman sachs expects the yuan appreciation in the short run.
Third, in 2014 China's economy remains challenging
China's economy in 2014, although the overall look good, but with changes in the global market economy reform has brought some fluctuations, posing a challenge to China's economy.Integrated foreign financial institutions to report can induce the following factors:
(1) the external economic fluctuations, especially the United States out of QE impact on emerging market countries.Based on the premise of QE to exit is the economic outlook improves, quantitative easing out impact on China's export sector should be modest.However, if the fed's QE exit lead to a stronger dollar and emerging market currencies devaluation generally, it will be about 2014 RMB/small dollar depreciation pressure policy.
(2) domestic first-tier cities () may still have some second-tier cities housing prices may continue to rise, the real estate bubbles tend to be worrying.
(3) the company and the government debt is 2014 China's economy is an important element of uncertainty.Although the debt crisis outbreak of possibility is low, but any radical's effort to limit credit growth is likely to cause economic growth.

(4) in east Asia and other regions of the geopolitical uncertainty makes China's relations with countries such as Japan, Vietnam and the Philippines will be strained, which have a certain negative impact on export.

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